Numbers from Election 2006. Possible 2008 targets

Originally posted at dKos

The Green Papers has a huge table of election info here.

Here's some info from that table:

The Dems won the House Popular vote 52/46.

And Under the Fold, I'll go over the club of candidates who didn't spend $100K but still got over 40% of the vote.

As well, a few big spenders, third party all-stars, and hapless Republicans will be noted.

And i'll produce a short targets list too.

Challengers who spent the least money and recieved over 40% (The Under 100K Club)

Thomas Shaw (D, OH-16): $0 spent, 41.36% of the vote [against Regula]
Frank Gonzalez (D, FL-21): $16,430 spent, 40.53% of the vote [against Diaz-Balart]
Michael Calderin (D, FL-25): $35,287 spent, 41.53% of the vote [against the other Diaz-Balart]
Sharon Renier (D, MI-07): $55,682 spent, 46.40% of the vote [against Wally Walberg]
Ted Ankrum (D, TX-10): $72,061 spent, 40.37% of the vote [against McCaul]
Eric Dickerson (R, IN-07): $76,591 spent, 46.29% of the vote [against Julia Carson]
Steven Porter (D, PA-03): $81,086 spent, 42.08% of the vote [against Phil English]
John Russell (D, FL-05): $89,635 spent, 40.15% of the vote [against Ginny Brown-Waite]
Charles Dertinger (D, PA-15): $90,172 spent, 44.13% of the vote [against Charles Dent]
Tony Trupiano (D, MI-11): $90,918 spent, 42.9% of the vote [against Thad McCotter]
Chad Kluko (D, PA-18): $95,320 spent, 42.11% of the vote [against Tim Murphy]

Highest Dollars Spent to Votes ratio

David McSweeney (R, IL-08): $70.44 spent for every vote recieved ($5M spent, 72398 votes recieved)

Vern Buchanan (R, FL-13): $67.81 spent for every vote recieved ($8M spent, 119309 votes recieved)

Tammy Duckworth (D, IL-06): $52.93 spent for every vote recieved ($4.5M spent, 85398 votes recieved)

Darcy Burner (D, WA-08): $51.97 spent for every vote recieved ($3M spent, 59268 votes recieved)

Melissa Bean (D, IL-08): $50.40 spent for every vote recieved ($4M spent, 84795 votes recieved)

Best Showings by Third Parties (General Election Edition):

Jim Noorlander (Constitution, UT-03): 14116 votes (8.82%) [against Cannon]
Tom Kelly (Green, CO-01): 25096 votes (20.67%) [No Republican ran here]
Tammy Lee (Independence Party of MN): 51456 votes (21.04%) [against Keith Ellison]
Rod Driver (Independent, RI-02): 52,574 (27.32%) [No Republican ran here]
Jason Blair (Libertarian, AZ-06): 38230 votes (25.92%) [No Democrat ran here]
Joe Viscusi (NPA, FL-12): 34976 votes (19.42%) [No Democrat ran here]
Ed Bowlin (NPA, FL-12): 20636 votes (11.46%) [No Democrat ran here]
Eric Eidsness (Reform, CO-04): 25880 votes (11.33%) [Cost Paccione the election]

Worst Showings by Republicans:

Ali Mohamed (NY-16): 2383 votes (4.46%) [against Serrano]
Jonathan Anderson (NY-10): 4469 votes (6.04%) [against Clarke]
Edward Daniels (NY-15): 6326 votes (6.18%) [against Rangel]
Steve Finger (NY-7): 7227 votes (7.83%) [against Towns, I think]
Michael Gessner (PA-2): 16823 votes (9.21%) [against Fattah]

Least Likely to Give Investment Advice:

Mike Denunzio (R, CA-08): Spent $149,442 and recieved 19800 votes (10.72%) in his race against Nancy Pelosi.

Deborah Honeycutt (R, GA-13): Spent $1,297,301 and recieved 45770 votes (30.76%) in her race against David Scott.

Vernon Robinson (R, NC-13): Spent $2,012,169 and recieved 56,120 votes (36.29%) in his crazy deluded race against Brad Miller

Incumbents who found ways to spend money somehow:

Rangel spent almost $2M, hopefully in the form of sending money to other candidates. Hoyer, Joe Crowley, and John Dingell also passed the plate over to other candidates. We hope. None of them spent $39M though.

Republicans who did that same thing include Spencer Bachus ($1.6M spent), Bobby Jindal ($2.9M spent), and Richard Baker ($1.4M spent). Bachus was unopposed. Jindal won 89%. Baker faced a Libertarian.

Here's some targets too.

OH-16 is worth targeting. No matter what Regula does, career move-wise.

Perhaps going for the South Florida districts held by the Diaz-Balarts could work, no matter how daunting it will be.

Somebody needs to be elbowed at the DCCC if they're writing off MI-07 or PA-15.

Random Note to close out the diary: The only Senate candidates to outspend an incumbent Senator were Jim Pederson, Ned Lamont, Pete Ricketts, and Sheldon Whitehouse. Whitehouse was the only winner, and the only non self-financer too.

Ok, that's all.



Display:


Tip Bucket (3.00 / 3)

since I impulsively posted this at 4am on dKos


by RBH on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 01:35:56 PM EST

NEBRASKA (3.00 / 1)

Ricketts was one of the senate candidates to outspend his opponent.  the Omaha World-Herald contrasted him w/ Jim Esch, a congressional candidate in Omaha who spent 200k (plus a little extra on a fancy website), and got 46% of the vote against 4-term-Lee Terry (R) who spent over a million.  

Ricketts spent like 50 bucks a vote and Esch spent less than 5.  

The Esch / Terry race is especially interesting because

a)  Esch is only 30 years old
b) Esch had no party support
c)  Esch is already running again for an '08 match-up
d) Terry is likely going to vacate the seat to run for the senate (if Chuck Hagel runs for President)

So I keep telling people to add Esch to their top 35 competitive races.  He's a true netroots candidate (he got some steam from local papers in october for calling Rumsfeld an idiot on his own blog... he corrected the mistake saying he meant incompetent.  God bless him ;)

Anyway, Esch is running again for '08, so check him out
www.jimesch.org
that race is going to be really interesting.  


by johnowens2 on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 04:43:21 PM EST

MI-07 (none / 0)

MI-07 has a lot of potential, and I'm not just saying that because I live there and have been blogging about it for a while.

Sharon Renier could have won it if she had a little more money and had a good political breeze behind her on Election Day. She's a chicken farmer and went up against a professional, smooth-talking 16-year veteran of the state legislature, and she managed 46% of the vote. I'm not 100 percent convinced that she should run again, but she should definitely stay involved in Michigan politics somehow. She's not a refined candidate, but she could grow and has a lot of potential.

A lot of us in the Michigan blogosphere have been speculating about potential candidates for 2008 instead of Renier. The top three choices seem to be:

- Joe Schwarz-- Incumbent GOP member of Congress, but primaried by extremist Walberg. He's a "moderate" that I call conservative, and a party switch is unlikely. But you never know. Rumor is, the DCCC pushed pretty hard in 2004 to get him to run as a Democrat, but he wouldn't leave his party. But then, 2004 was a long time ago. If he ran as a Democrat, he'd have a decent shot at winning against Walberg.

- Doug Spade-- Term-limited out of the state House in 2004, rumor is he was also courted by the DCCC, but wasn't ready to go to Washington. He's a centrist, but could win Lenawee County (Walberg's home county) plus the Democratic regions of the district.

As I see it, a Republican needs to win Lenawee, Hillsdale, and Branch counties, plus a narrow victory in Jackson County to win the district (which is basically what Walberg did). Take away Lenawee County, plus Spade's general strength as a candidate, and winning could be a real possibility. (Also, an interesting note: Spade would be the first legally blind member of Congress.)

- Mark Schauer-- State Senator and Democratic leader in the Senate, he's a "rising star" in the party. My prediction: If he doesn't run for Congress in 2008, watch for him to run for governor in 2010. He's young-ish, charismatic, and a popular choice, and would carry Calhoun County by an enormous margin, and be strong elsewhere in the district.

Mind you, none of the three have expressed any intention of running. This is all speculation. But all three of them have in-state fundraising connections, friends in key places, and would (hopefully) get noticed by the DCCC.

I have no doubt that if any Democrat, Renier or otherwise, had spent as much as Walberg did, Walberg wouldn't be headed to Washington.

Ehh. Long comment...


Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 05:02:55 PM EST

Re: Numbers from Election 2006. Possible 2008 targ (none / 0)

The Dertinger  number is actually too high since the number on the state website is wrong because a counting problem in Northampton county.  


by orin76 on Wed Dec 20, 2006 at 05:09:08 PM EST


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