Basically, i'll be going over the candidates who had the highest percentages of their totals come from committed voters. Also, i'll note which candidates have the biggest leads with Independents. And which samples look the weirdest to me.
First off, the Republicans whose total percentage includes the most weak voters
CT-2 (Simmons) has 30% strong support, with 16% weak.
Let me give you the partisan split for CT-2 and then we'll go under the fold.
Republicans: 60% Strong Simmons, 24% Weak Simmons, 2% Undecided, 4% Weak Courtney, 9% Strong Courtney (84-13)
Democrats: 9% Strong Simmons, 11% Weak Simmons, 5% Undecided, 14% Weak Courtney, 61% Strong Courtney (20-75)
Independents: 33% Strong Simmons, 15% Weak Simmons, 2% Undecided, 14% Weak Courtney, 36% Strong Courtney (48-50)
Basically Courtney has a good advantage, especially with this sample (which is probably slightly too blue to be realistic). But, there's a lot of Democrats who should jump back to our side given the right push.
Let's go under the fold.
Other Republican seats with weak showings:
FL-22 (Shaw has 53%, 39% strong, 14% weak)
IA-1 (The Republican has 40%, 29% strong, 11% weak)
NY-24 (Generic Republican has 40%, 29% strong, 11% weak)
OH-18 (Generic Republican has 42%, 29% strong, 13% weak)
VT-AL (Generic Republican has 40%, 28% strong, 12% weak)
WA-8 (Reichert has 46%, 32% strong, 14% weak)
As for Democrats, the weakest seats, support-wise include: Farrell (32% strong, 10% weak), Bean (33% strong, 15% weak), NY-24 (35% strong, 14% weak), Space (35% Strong, 11% Weak), Burner (31% strong, 18% weak), Mollohan (34% strong, 18% Weak)
Now, for my thoughts on various samples.
PA-6 (48R-40D-12I) and PA-8 (51R-30D-19I) oversampled Republicans. Really, when the sample percentage of Republicans exceeds the percentage of Republicans who voted for Bush, there's a problem there.
WA-8 (33R-30D-37I) may be missampled too. IL-6 seems missampled as well (46R-28D-27I).
FL-22's sample (45R-32D-23I) seems odd compared to FL-13 (42R-37D-21I). Especially since FL-22 is bluer.
The 50R-25D-25I sample for CO-4 also seems suspicious. The 46D-35R-20I sample in NM-1 could be too generous to us too.
But, now to the showings amongst Independents.
27 polls, and Republicans hold a lead amongst Independents in 2 of those polls.
Shays is one of those leaders (43-42). And Generic Republican in MN-6 is the other one (49-35). And both leads will disappear by November.
As for the Democrats with the biggest margins.
Amongst challengers:
Murphy has a 68-14 lead amongst the small Independent sample.
Carney has a 63-23 lead amongst another sample Independent sample.
Kellam has a 57-33 lead in a pretty big Independent sample.
Klein has a 61-38 lead.
Amongst Incumbents and Open Seat people:
Generic Democrat has a 62-37 lead amongst Indies.
Tammy Duckworth has a 59-34 lead over Roskam amongst Indies.
Melissa Bean has a 66-26 lead amongst the Indies.
Boswell has a 69-27 lead.
Charlie Wilson has a 68-14 lead in a small sample.
Mollohan has a 58-33 lead in a small sample.
And on to the Republicans who lose a lot of votes to the Democrat amongst Republicans in this poll.
Generic Republican is up 72-23 in AZ-8.
Musgrave only got 73%, with 17% for Paccione.
Shaw has a 75-19 lead with his party.
Jon Porter has a 79-14 lead.
Heather Wilson has a 72-18 lead.
Generic R is up 71-23 in NY-24.
Mike Fitzpatrick is up 76-22.
Don Sherwood is up 69-24.
Thelma Drake is up 75-22
Wakim is up 68-23 amongst his own party.
And for 'balance', the following Republicans got high percentages of the Democrats: The Generic R got 26% in AZ-8, We know about Simmons, Shays got 22%, Generic R got 32% in FL-13, Shaw got 31% in FL-22, Porter gets 20%, Wilson gets 33%, Fitzpatrick gets 21%, Wakim gets 23%.
In conclusion, Don Sherwood is a goner.
Oh yeah, and the thunder is muffled slightly here. I think there's a lot more potential here.
So, maybe some more people can dig though the internals here to get more info.
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